Analysis of sustainable development of the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation

Abstract

The problem and the global objective of organizing and managing development is to develop a set of interrelated measures for sustainable development of the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation. This article considers the factographic approach using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model for the analysis of sustainable development of the Arctic territories. A set of interrelated measures relates to the main spheres of human activity in the Russian Arctic, namely, to activities in four areas: environmental, industrial, innovative, socio-economic. The main factors influencing the sustainable development of the Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are identified based on structural analysis of the problems associated with the sustainable development of the territory. Indicators that represent the spheres of human activity in the Arctic, whose interaction is contradictory when moving towards sustainable development, are taken as endogenous factors. Based on the indicators substantiated in this paper, the mathematical model of factor dependence was developed and a set o measures was presented that are necessary to reduce the degree of risk in order to solve the given problem.