Using publicly available data to conduct rapid assessments of extinction risk

Abstract

AbstractThe IUCN Red List plays a key role in setting global conservation priorities and is populated via rigorous, time‐intensive assessments. Here, we test rapid preliminary assessments of plant extinction risk using one Red List metric: Extent of Occurrence (EOO). We developed REBA (Rapid EOO‐Based Assessment) to harvest and clean data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, calculate each species' EOO and assign EOO‐based Red List categories. We validated REBA classifications against 1671 North American plant species already on the Red List and found ~87% overlap between REBA’s classifications and the IUCN’s. However, REBA’s false‐negative rate for species outside the Least Concern category was substantial (~68%). To elucidate factors that might drive such a high rate of under‐classification, we used hierarchical Bayesian models to show that certain plant types (e.g., Geophytes) and threats (e.g., Invasive and Other Problematic Species, Genes, and Diseases) increased the probability of under‐classification. While REBA requires further refinement, it has yielded valuable insight into how preliminary assessment methodologies may become more effective.