Using Multi-Objective Land Allocation Model to Simulate Urban Growth: The Case of Sarakhs Border City in Iran

Abstract

This chapter’s purpose is to simulate urban growth of Sarakhs, using a Multi-Objective Land Allocation (MOLA) model. To achieve this goal, Landsat 7 and 8 and Sentinel 2A satellite images from 2003 to 2020, and 13 variables affecting the location of land uses with spatial decision model (SDM), multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), and MOLA model were used. Considering the increase in the city’s population from 2020 to 2030 and the possibility of turning the city into a Free Economic Industrial Zone (FEIZ), about 322 hectares of land for residential use and 500 hectares for industrial use were estimated until 2030. By using MOLA model, the location of residential and industrial land use with a distance from agricultural lands was simulated in the west of the city. The result of the residential land use simulation is in line with the projected development direction of the City Master Plan to a large extent. But industrial land use is predicted in the vicinity of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the west of the city. Therefore, the research results can be used in simulating of urban growth due to high speed, accuracy, and low-cost compared to traditional methods of preparing Master Plans in the Third World cities.