Using Machine Learning to Predict the Fuel Peak Cladding Temperature for a Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident

Abstract

In this paper the use of machine learning (ML) is explored as an efficient tool for uncertainty quantification. A machine learning algorithm is developed to predict the peak cladding temperature (PCT) under the conditions of a large break loss of coolant accident given the various underlying uncertainties. The best estimate approach is used to simulate the thermal-hydraulic system of APR1400 large break loss of coolant accident (LBLOCA) scenario using the multidimensional reactor safety analysis code (MARS-KS) lumped parameter system code developed by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). To generate the database necessary to train the ML model, a set of uncertainty parameters derived from the phenomena identification and ranking table (PIRT) is propagated through the thermal hydraulic model using the Dakota-MARS uncertainty quantification framework. The developed ML model uses the database created by the uncertainty quantification framework along with Keras library and Talos optimization to construct the artificial neural network (ANN). After learning and validation, the ML model can predict the peak cladding temperature (PCT) reasonably well with a mean squared error (MSE) of ∼0.002 and R2 of ∼0.9 with 9 to 11 key uncertain parameters. As a bounding accident scenario analysis of the LBLOCA case paves the way to using machine learning as a decision making tool for design extension conditions as well as severe accidents.