Using LMDI method to analyze transportation sector energy consumption in China between 2006 and 2030

Abstract

Transportation sector accounts for a major share of energy consumption in China, especially the petroleum products, which experienced rapid increases in energy demand. This paper aims at analyzing future energy consumption in Chinese transportation sector over the period from 2006 to 2030. Unlike the previous studies, the actual data for 2006 and projected data for 2030 under five scenarios are used in this paper. We firstly analyze the future status of energy consumption. Then, the LMDI technique is used to find the nature of the factors that influence the changes in transportation energy consumption. We found that: (1) In 2030, the total energy consumption for five scenarios will be 16866-25191PJ, which increased 2.26-3.88 times compared as against 2006. (2) In the future, highways will always be the dominate transport mode. In 2030, the percentage of energy of oil fuels in total energy consumption of the whole sector account for more than 97.6%. (3) The transportation activity effect is the most important contributor to increase energy consumption in the transportation sector and the energy intensity effect plays the dominant role in decreasing energy consumption. The effect of advanced technology is bigger than the choice of transport mode.