Using input-output analysis to model the impact of pandemic mitigation and suppression measures on the workforce

Abstract

The “flatten the curve” graphic has recently become a common tool to visualize the extent to which pandemic suppression and mitigation measures could potentially reduce and delay the number of daily infections due to a pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged the capacity of the many healthcare systems and created cascading economic impacts on interdependent sectors of the global society. This paper specifically explores the impact of pandemics on the workforce. The model proposed in this paper comprises of three major steps. First, sources for epidemic curves are identified to generate the attack rate, which is the daily number of infections normalized with respect to the population of the affected region. Second, the model assumes that the general attack rate can be specialized to reflect sector-specific workforce classifications, noting that each economic sector has varying dependence on the workforce. Third, using economic input-output (IO) data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, this paper analyzes the performance of several mitigation and suppression measures relative to a baseline pandemic scenario. Results from the IO simulations demonstrate the extent to which mitigation and suppression measures can flatten the curve. This paper concludes with reflections on other consequences of pandemics such as the mental health impacts associated with social isolation and the disproportionate effects on different socioeconomic groups.