Using geographically weighted regressions to explore spatial heterogeneity of land use influencing factors in Campania (Southern Italy)

Abstract

The progressive artificial covering of originally natural surfaces (land consumption) is a major concern of today’s societies due to the implications for the environment and the availability of land resources. This study aims to explore the local variations in the effects of the main socio-demographic, economic and institutional determinants of land consumption in Campania (southern Italy). Using data from official sources for 2020 at the municipal level, geographically weighted regression was run to address local variations through a set of coefficients as a function of spatial location. One of the main elements of novelty of this study is that it links research on land use influencing factors to such a high level of geographic detail (all 550 Campanian municipalities), while controlling for spatial non-stationarity and morphological characteristics. Understanding how the impact of the determinants varies across municipalities can help local policy makers adopt the regulatory instruments for land use management envisaged by law. The results show that the levels of land consumption are not aligned with the real demand and carrying capacity of several areas of the region, suggesting that: i) knowing the local specificities explaining land consumption is the prerequisite for preserving environmental quality and ecosystem services; ii) better quality local institutions are needed to curb unbalanced land consumption and to guide spatial planning in support of sustainable land management.