Using fuzzy cognitive map in bow tie method for dynamic risk assessment of spherical storage tanks: A case study

Abstract

The present study aimed to perform a dynamic risk assessment of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in spherical storage tanks using the Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) method. The “LPG release from spherical storage tank” scenario was determined to be a top event based on the risk level. The causes and consequences of this scenario were then specified using the Bow-Tie method. Additionally, fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) was utilized to identify the most critical threats, consequences, and effective barriers in a dynamic approach. Results showed that fracture/rupture in pipelines/a storage tank due to fire had the highest output degree and was identified as the most influential threat in the occurrence of the LPG release. Fatality/injury due to fire and explosion had the highest input degree and was more influenced by the release of LPG as the main consequence in the selected scenario. The findings of this study enabled us to make a logical decision about effective barriers for avoiding and minimizing the release of LPG and its threats and consequences based on the fuzzy cognitive map. Moreover, the results of this study showed that the FCM method could determine the most critical nodes with a higher degree and represent their relationships.