Abstract
Cruise tourism on the Yangtze River Basin has developed rapidly in recent years. However, it is still facing such challenges as homogenization of itinerary and shore attraction arrangement, as well as aging cruise ships and simplification of service facilities, while it is also difficult to satisfy hierarchical and personalized tourist needs. To change such circumstances, new-build river cruise ships are inevitable. Complexity of market supply and demand environment, together with variability of tourist preferences, have increased market uncertainties of new-build cruise products. This study aims to assess market risks of new-build river cruise ships first by identifying risk factors, from the perspective of supply and demand under the actual conditions of the Yangtze River cruise market, then by evaluating potential impacts, caused by risk factors based on multi-criteria decision-making considerations. Fuzzy AHP-PROMETHEE was employed to prioritize the risk factors. The results reveal that among the most significant market risk factors are the following, in sequence: backwardness of support facilities; sudden security crisis; homogenization of cruise products; simplification of tourism route design; and inadequate management of the tourism market. Such findings will provide beneficial insights for strategic and sustainable development of river cruises on the Yangtze River.
Highlights
IntroductionRiver cruise tourism on the Yangtze River has been greatly developed in the last decade
This study identifies risk factors based on the analysis of market environment; first, this study clarifies the situation of market supply and demand, it discusses influencing factors in tourist decision-making and, it summarizes market risk factors of new-build river cruise ships
(3) A fuzzy MCDA method is introduced to establish a risk assessment model based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-PROMETHEE that allows for evaluation in uncertain and complex environments to reduce ambiguity and uncertainty in human judgment
Summary
River cruise tourism on the Yangtze River has been greatly developed in the last decade. River cruise ships in operation are increasing every year and exceeded 50 in. Yangtze River cruise tourism, showing high-quality development trends of route extension, product integration and cruise ship luxury, puts forward higher requirements for cruise product design, content operation and resource integration [1]. Contradiction between supply and demand of cruise products, the need for further improvement of cruise product quality and favorable development space are the current conditions of river cruises on the Yangtze River. Building new river cruise ships is necessary to meet the increasing needs of tourists, shorten the gap between domestic river cruises and those abroad, and attract more tourists to travel the Yangtze River on board a cruise
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