Using dynamic scenario analyses to evaluate how market factors could shape San Diego California New Car buyer’s interest in purchasing a Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV)

Abstract

This analysis creates three temporally sequential hypothetical future time periods for a PEV market. In these scenarios, we present six factors which are likely to influence PEV ownership. These factors are the incremental cost of PEVs, the size of vehicles available for purchase, the vehicle manufacturers producing PEVs, vehicle turnover, the cost to install home charging infrastructure and the authority to install charging infrastructure at a primary residence. In each time period the characteristics of the vehicle and consumer market change to capture the dynamics of vehicle supply and new car buyers. Results from a mixed-method questionnaire of 470 San Diego California residents is matched with the hypothetical scenarios created for this analysis, which provides a baseline measure of how interest in PEVs might evolve over time for San Diego CA new car buyers. Incremental changes from the baseline conditions in each of the factors illustrate how different strategies such as: price reduction, larger vehicles offered for sale, introduction of new makes producing PEVs, and workplace charging infrastructure, might play a role in changing the pool of San Diego CA new car buyers who are interested in purchasing a PEV.