Abstract

• Study of electric mobility policy and charging infrastructure effect on PEV uptake. • Panel data on 32 European countries from 2009 to 2019 are used. • Results strongly suggest that charging infrastructure increases PEV market share. • Fast charging in particular is a key enabler for higher PEV market shares. • Electric mobility policy packages increase PEV shares more than single policies. The transportation sector accounts for a significant part of European emissions and is one of the few sectors with rising emissions. Thus one crucial part of the European strategy to reduce overall emissions is a shift, in the transportation sector, to low-emission mobility and electric mobility in particular. As European governments and policymakers consider feasible ways of supporting the transition, one central question is whether the policies and actions they enact should aim for creating incremental or structural change, here operationalized as personal incentives vs. charging infrastructure. Therefore, this analysis investigates the effects of electric mobility policies and charging infrastructure on plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market shares in Europe from 2009 to 2019. Charging infrastructure, and fast charging infrastructure in particular, demonstrate by far the strongest and most robust results of the analysis, having a significant positive effect on PEV market shares in all models. The analysis also suggests that purchase incentives, ownership tax benefits, and the policy packages for electric mobility tested have a positive and significant effect on PEV adoption. However, these effects are notably weaker and exhibit far less robust findings across the models in the analysis. Thus, while the study cannot conclusively come down on the side of infrastructure over personal incentives, it persuasively points to the crucial importance of charging infrastructures for the electrification of transportation. Theoretically, this makes sense—personal incentives will increase the market shares of PEV, but only incrementally, running the risk of merely supplementing the old fossil fuel-based transportation system rather than replacing it. Charging infrastructure on the other hand creates the potential for structural change, implying that a more active and coordinated build-out of charging infrastructure is needed to ensure a rapid transition to low-emission mobility.

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