Using Distributed Resources to Manage Risks Caused by Demand Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper presents a method to calculate the cost of satisfying transmission and distribution (T&D) system capacity needs as a function of investment modularity and lead-time. It accounts for the dynamic nature of demand uncertainty, the decision-maker's risk attitude, and the correlation between costs and firm profits. Results indicate that the modularity and short lead-times associated with the distributed resources can increase their attractiveness in comparison to long lead-time, large-scale T&D investments. Results also suggest that distributed resources can operate as a type of load growth insurance if demand growth is positively correlated with profits (so that costs are incurred when profits are high) and if the distributed resource costs are part of a larger portfolio that cannot be diversified.