Using decision analysis to achieve the desired image of the future

Abstract

The article is devoted to the methodology and features of the scientific direction of decision analysis, which make it essential for the state strategy development in order to achieve the desired image of the future. The history of decision analysis is studied, the basics of the scientific direction are considered: systems analysis, decision theory, probabilistic analysis and cognitive psychology. Organizations that actively use the methodology and most popular computer programs for the practical implementation of decision analysis methods are represented. The domestic contribution to the decision analysis is shown. A promising sub-direction which allows strategy development in conditions of conflicting objectives (multicriteria decision analysis) is presented. The modern methodology of decision analysis is considered: the system of values and objectives of the organization, decision context, identification and evaluation of the mathematical model elements, graphical representation of the model using influence diagrams and decision trees, the procedure of mathematical modeling, optimal strategy determination based on the criterion of maximizing/minimizing the objective function value and the criterion of risk profile dominance and sensitivity analysis methods: one-way and two-way sensitivity analysis, probability sensitivity analysis and strategy dominance analysis. The article concludes that the scientific direction of decision analysis has a number of advantages that make it suitable for use in the field of state strategy development.