Usefulness of the Fibrosis-4 index and alanine aminotransferase at 1year of nucleos(t)ide analog treatment for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitisB patients.

Abstract

Nucleos(t)ide analogs do not completely prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitisB virus infection. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of a non-invasive liver fibrosis marker, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, for predicting HCC development. Among a total of 882 chronically hepatitisB virus infection-infected patients who were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs, 472 patients without HCC history whose FIB-4 at baseline and 1year of treatment was obtained were evaluated for the incidence of HCC. The median FIB-4 was 2.00 at baseline and was significantly reduced to 1.58 at 1year (P<0.001), but the reduction was small at 2years or later. When a receiver operating characteristic analysis of FIB-4 was performed to predict HCC within 5years, the area under the curve of FIB-4 at 1year was higher than that at baseline (0.676 vs. 0.599). The HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with FIB-4 ≥1.58 than in those with FIB-4 <1.58 (14.8% vs. 3.6% at 10years, P<0.001). Additionally, an abnormal alanine aminotransferase (≥31U/L) at 1year was an independent risk for HCC. When a fibrosis and alanine aminotransferase-1 (FAL-1)score was evaluated as an applicable number of FIB-4 ≥1.58, and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 as 0, 1, and 2, the HCC risk in patients with score 2 was significantly higher than in those with score 1 or score 0 (24.1% vs. 9.8% vs. 0.7% at 10years, P<0.001). FIB-4 ≥1.58 and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 at 1year of nucleos(t)ide analog was an independent risk factor for HCC development, and a score using these factors stratified the risk of HCC.