Use of Simulation Modeling to Select Input Variables in Predictive Models for the Demand for Emergency Medical Services in Russia

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to select input variables for a predictive model for the demand for emergency medical services in the city of Yekaterinburg, Russia. To select the relevant variables, we attempted to analyze a rather wide range of factors and estimate their influence on the demand for emergency medical services. The paper suggests a simulation model based on studies of the structure of utilization conducted by Russian researchers. The following elements were considered in the analysis of the set of factors causing the changes in the demand for emergency medical services: (1) the flow of patients calling an ambulance (2) state variables — interconnected factors affecting the flow rate (1). The simulation model allowed us to determine the most important variables affecting the utilization of emergency medical services and range them according to their influence. These variables can be used in the future for predictive analysis. The study results do not differ from the opinions of Russian experts that the demand for emergency medical services can be lowered by growing the capacity of outpatient healthcare institutions.