Abstract
AimIn most regions of the world, the proportion of older people in the population has increased during the last decades. As this entails major consequences for the healthcare sector, this study isolates and quantifies the impact of an aging population on the demand for emergency medical services in different types of regions in Bavaria between 2012 and 2032.MethodsDispatch data of the emergency medical services were combined with population data and forecasts. Age-specific rates of emergency ambulance dispatches were calculated and used for a 20-year-projection for all 71 rural and 25 urban districts of Bavaria. Tests for differences between these two types of regions were applied.ResultsPer capita rates of emergency ambulance dispatches in urban regions tend to be higher and there is an urban–rural distinction in the rates of specific age groups. The projection predicted an overall increase in emergency ambulance dispatches by 21 % in Bavaria within 20 years, solely due to demographic effects. At the regional level, this demographic impact ranged from about −3 % to +41 %. There is a clear urban–rural distinction and the 28 regions with the strongest increase are all rural regions.ConclusionThe substantial demographic impact in combination with strong urban–rural variations should be accounted for in regional long-term planning as well as age-group specific innovation in the emergency medical services. As demography is not the only significant demand factor, the identification and quantification of other factors remains a challenge for further research.
Highlights
In most regions of the world, the proportion of older people in the population has increased during the last decades as life expectancy has gone up and the number of births has gone down
Relating to this official categorization based on settlement structure, we refer to the Bavarian districts as either rural regions (71 districts, officially Landkreise) or urban regions (25 districts, officially kreisfreie Städte)
Patient age and per capita rates in Bavaria In Bavaria as a whole, people aged 75 years and older accounted for 33 % of all emergency ambulance dispatches (EAD) in 2012
Summary
In most regions of the world, the proportion of older people in the population has increased during the last decades as life expectancy has gone up and the number of births has gone down. This aging process is expected to continue across the world and is especially advanced in developed countries like those of the European Union or Japan (European Commission 2013; United Nations et al 2013a, b). Aging has major consequences for population health and the healthcare sector. Aging has been identified as an important contributor— amongst others such as advancing medical technology—to rising health costs (Breyer et al 2010)
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