Abstract
<p>North-central Ukraine is vulnerable to temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes associated with climate change. With water management becoming increasingly important, information on current water sources and moisture recycling is critically needed. Isotope ratios of oxygen (δ<sup>18</sup>O) and hydrogen (δ<sup>2</sup>H) in precipitation are sensitive to these variables and allow comparisons across the region. For this study, precipitation was collected over a period of one year from Kyiv and Cherkasy and local meteoric water lines were created for both cities. The δ<sup>2</sup>H and δ<sup>18</sup>O values from collected precipitation and published <sup>3</sup>H data for Kyiv from the year 2000 show an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and provide information about processes affecting precipitation along the storm trajectory. The δ<sup>18</sup>O values also show correlation with temperature, indicating that precipitation patterns may be affected by the rising temperatures in the region, as predicted by recent regional studies using Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and the global climate model GFDL-ESM2M. When compared to backtracked storm trajectory data, clear relationships emerged between water isotope ratios, storm paths, and likely moisture recycling. These results show that when isotopic data are used with backtracked storm trajectories and NAO cycles, a more complete idea of regional processes can be formed, including addition of water vapor from more localized sources. Overall, δ<sup>2</sup>H, δ<sup>18</sup>O, <sup>3</sup>H, and backtracked storm trajectory data provide more regional and local information on water vapor processes, improving climate-change-driven precipitation forecasts in Ukraine.</p>
Published Version
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