US policy options toward an emerging China

Abstract

The debate over how to respond to China's emergence on the world stage is often simplistic, limited to the stark alternatives of ‘containment’ or ‘engagement.’ In addition to these two options, the United States could also seek to ‘transform’ China into a democracy or to ‘condition’ its behaviour through a mix of inducements and punishments. All of these options have different assumptions regarding the impact of interdependence, the prospects for democratization, and the likelihood of confronting a hostile China in the future. Despite the claims of engagement's advocates, the effects of democratization and interdependence are uncertain at best, suggesting that caution is in order. Conversely, Beijing would be highly hostile to any shift from engagement, and US allies also would not support a change under present conditions. No consensus in the United States has emerged to replace engagement. Thus, although many of engagement's premises are not sound, it remains the most feasible policy under present conditions. Conditioning, however, would be an attractive and prudent alternative should allies and domestic opinion favor a more confrontational stance toward China.