Abstract
We study the effect of US food aid on conflict in recipient countries. Our analysis exploits time variation in food aid shipments due to changes in US wheat production and cross-sectional variation in a country's tendency to receive any US food aid. According to our estimates, an increase in US food aid increases the incidence and duration of civil conflicts, but has no robust effect on interstate conflicts or the onset of civil conflicts. We also provide suggestive evidence that the effects are most pronounced in countries with a recent history of civil conflict. (JEL D74, F35, O17, O19, Q11, Q18)
Highlights
The estimates, which are reported in columns 6–8, provide strong evidence that US food aid decreases the probability of civil conflict offset, increasing the duration of existing conflicts
The estimated effects are negative, but small in magnitude and statistically insignificant. This finding is consistent with the existing empirical evidence, which generally fails to find a link between food aid and production (Abdulai, Barrett, and Hoddinott 2005; Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 2006, pp. 40–41)
Recent critics observe that humanitarian aid, and food aid in particular, may promote conflict
Summary
Aid watchers most frequently point to theft by armed factions on the ground as the primary mechanism through which food aid and other types of humanitarian aid promote conflict. The rebel leader Odumegwu Ojukwu only allowed aid to enter the rebel controlled region of Biafra if it was shipped on his planes He charged aid agencies for the use of his airplanes and filled the remaining space with arms and other military equipment. Governments that receive aid often target it to specific populations, excluding opposition groups or populations in potentially rebellious regions This has been noted to increase hostilities and promote conflict. Aid can still fuel conflict even if it is successfully delivered to the intended populations This is because the recipient populations either include members of rebel or militia groups, or the recipients are “taxed” after receiving the aid. Our study estimates the average causal effect of food aid on conflict and, captures the net effect of all effects (positive and negative) of food aid on conflict
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