Abstract
ABSTRACT Floods cause significant damage in cities due to their intensity, frequency, and vulnerability, which are driven by complex internal and external factors. Dynamic behavior of urban response during a flood event is difficult to measure due to urban systems’ complexity and non-linear behavior. This study simulates the flood response dynamics of people, inundated waters, and financial expenditure during a flood event to visualize the dynamics of urban flood events using Colombo City, Sri Lanka, as a case study. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for pumping infrastructure and flood relief expenditure to view the variation of flood damage using Monte Carlo simulation. Results revealed that pumping units and the initial flood relief budget significantly impact the flood recovery of inundated areas. The results were validated using flood water pumping statistics and hydrology models conducted for historical flood events. The system dynamics framework is useful for combining multiple parameters in the flood modeling process to understand the complex relationships between population, flood inundation, and financial relief programs. This framework can be expanded to quantify the effects of mitigation and adaptation strategies in flood-vulnerable cities to optimize the decision-making process.
Published Version
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