Urban simulation incorporating coordination relationships of multiple ecosystem services

Abstract

● A cellular automata model incorporating ecosystem service interactions is developed ● Future urban expansion under influence of ecosystem service interaction is simulated ● The improved model better captures ES relationship changes caused by urban expansion ● Multi-level ES protection mechanism is highly recommended in spatial planning Rapid urbanization evidently affected ecosystem service provisions. Although numerous models have incorporated ecosystem services into land use decisions, most of them typically ignored the interactions between multiple ecosystem services (MES), as well as their impact on future urban expansion. Here, we propose a novel urban simulation model based on the integration of the coupling coordination evaluation of MES and cellular automata. The Wuhan Metropolitan Area was selected to test the model. Six conservation scenarios at different ecological coupling coordination levels were designed to predict urban expansion in 2030 and examine how ES interactions impact urban expansion modes. The results showed that the proposed model has an accuracy of 84.01% and can better capture the changes in MES interactions caused by urban expansion. A significantly negative correlation exists between the coupling coordination degree of MES and urban expansion, with a decreased coefficient from -0.924 to -0.945 during the period of 2010-2015. Our results also suggest that single conservation scenario may be inadequate to coordinate MES and urban expansion, which necessitates a comprehensive ecological protection mechanism in spatial planning. The proposed model can provide better understanding of relationships between MES interactions and urban expansion, and help planners to generate sustainable urban development policies.