Abstract
We developed an approach to assess urban land use changes that incorporates socio-economic and environmental factors with multinomial logistic model, remote sensing data and GIS, and to quantify the impact of macro variables on land use of urban areas for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010 in Binhai New Area, China. The Markov transition matrix was designed to integrate with multinomial logistic model to illustrate and visualize the predicted land use surface. The multinomial logistic model was evaluated by means of Likelihood ratio test and Pseudo R-Square and showed a relatively good simulation. The prediction map of 2010 showed accurate rates 78.54%, 57.25% and 70.38%, respectively.
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