Abstract
The energy price influence system is one of the key mechanisms in the study of energy consumption. China’s household energy consumption has obvious regional differences, and rising income levels and urbanisation have changed the willingness and ability of households to make energy consumption choices. Based on the linear price effect of household energy consumption, this paper explores the scenario characteristics of energy prices affecting energy consumption, taking electricity and natural gas consumption as examples. Based on household energy consumption statistics from 2005 to 2018 in 36 major cities across China, the accuracy and change trends of household energy consumption forecasts are investigated through the decision tree-support vector machine (DT-SVR) non-linear forecasting technique. The study shows that the non-linear forecasting technique accurately portrays the predicted trends of changes in total urban household electricity and natural gas consumption. Within the less developed regions of economic development, income levels are still the main constraint on changes in urban household energy consumption, and the stimulating effect of income levels on household energy consumption has not been seen in the process of economic development in these less developed regions. Urbanisation as an important factor in examining household energy consumption, different development patterns and development processes will gradually be reflected in scenario aspects such as the choice of urban household energy consumption and changes in total consumption.
Highlights
Household energy consumption has reached nearly 35% of energy end-use consumption; the actual figures for China reflect this proportion to be over 10%, making it the second largest energy consuming sector in addition to industrial energy consumption
As the role of the population changes with urbanisation, the increased demand for electricity and the consumption of new electrical products are the main reasons for the increase in energy consumption due to the shift from rural to urban households (Fan et al, 2017) Another type of study suggests that the efficient use of public facilities due to dense urban populations will help reduce the growth of household energy consumption (Han et al, 2016), etc
In terms of economic development in the traditional sense, we find that the level of urbanisation and prices in the more economically developed regions, such as the coast, compared to the inland, are important factors influencing changes in household energy consumption
Summary
Household energy consumption has reached nearly 35% of energy end-use consumption; the actual figures for China reflect this proportion to be over 10%, making it the second largest energy consuming sector in addition to industrial energy consumption. In terms of the main types of energy consumed by households in China, the use of fossil fuels is still the main source of household energy consumption. There are many factors influencing household energy consumption, including per capita income, urbanisation and climatic. Urban Household Energy Consumption Forecasting conditions, when examined in terms of economic, social and environmental factors. The main factor influencing household energy consumption is temperature conditions, which is important for the characteristics of household energy consumption in China. In terms of changes in total per capita energy consumption, the main regional characteristics are “high in the north and low in the south”, and the national trend of household coal consumption is “high in the west and low in the east”. In the area of household electricity consumption, the nationwide pattern is “high in the south and low in the north”
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