Urban growth simulation using SLEUTH in Afyonkarahisar (Turkey)

Mustafa Mutlu Uysal ,Murat Uysal

doi:10.17559/tv-20140821082956

Mustafa Mutlu Uysal , Murat Uysal

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.17559/tv-20140821082956

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Abstract

In this study, the change in city growth of Afyonkarahisar in the adjacent area in the future was estimated using the SLEUTH model. The main objective of this study is to show the simulation of the change in the urban growth of Afyonkarahisar until 2030 with the SLEUTH model, a cellular automata model. For this purpose, two different growth scenarios have been developed. As a result of the study, with the current growth scenario, urban development from 2011 to 2030 will increase by 3115 hectares, and it is seen that 2300 hectares of pasture areas will be destroyed with this increase. It is found that 2000 ha of natural areas can be protected from urbanization and the wrong land use of the city's natural resources having social and economic importance can be avoided with the controlled growth scenario.

Highlights

The rapid increase in world population, the misuse of natural resources and the potential land use conflicts are the problems on the agenda of many developed and developing countries
Sometimes changes in land use are made mandatory in order to provide the basic functions, such as shelter for people, food, transportation and recreation in a healthy manner
State and territory agencies in the United States Sleuth have come to realize the potential of SLEUTH model and use it as a tool for modelling the fragility of the natural areas

Summary

Introduction

The rapid increase in world population, the misuse of natural resources and the potential land use conflicts are the problems on the agenda of many developed and developing countries. In the past two centuries, despite only 6-fold increase in world population, the city's population has increased more than 100 times [1]. A city as a complex system is both static and dynamic as it is in a continuous change and development [2]. Sometimes changes in land use are made mandatory in order to provide the basic functions, such as shelter for people, food, transportation and recreation in a healthy manner. The entire city information must be mastered by all of the local authorities in order to overcome this problem in a healthy way [3]

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