Urban growth Prediction for Sustainable Urban Management Using Markov Chain Model: A Study on Purulia Municipality, West Bengal, India

Abstract

Rapid population concentration, unorganized built-up growth, lack of information for the urban expansion and land-use change etc., are the challenges of urban spatial planning in the towns of backward areas like Purulia District, West Bengal. So, to ensure the Purulia Municipality’s sustainable urban management, the present study was conducted to analyze the urban growth pattern and predict the future built-up expansion probability for sustainable urban management strategies as well as for the welfare of the future physical as well as human environment. The Purulia town is the only dominant town in the district in respect of population and urban facilities. Satellite images were used for the preparation of LULC maps for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. An integrated Markov and cellular automata (CA) urban growth prediction model has been utilized to project the town’s built-up expansion for the year 2030. To consider the other LULC types, the MC-CA model was integrated into the transition probability matrix to identify the future transformation probability of built-up land from other LULC types. The results for LULC transformation showed the tendency of the rapid rising built-up area from 1990 to 2020 and the probability was highest from agricultural land, followed by vegetation coverage, and water body. The study reveals that the urban growth pattern will encroach on the closer suburban field of the municipality in the coming decades. For the planning purposes of urban development in the socio-economic-deprived region like the Purulia District, the suggested planning strategies can best be used by the planners and administrators.