Urban growth and vulnerability to climate change of Calderón in the Metropolitan district of Quito, Ecuador

Abstract

The parish of Calderón, located in the Metropolitan District of Quito, has a spatial dynamic characteristic of the expansion processes, with notable population growth, loss of agricultural land, and settlements in vulnerable areas. This research aimed to identify the vulnerability to climate change by analyzing urban growth in this parish to define measures for its climate change adaptation. A three-stage mixed approach methodology was used: the historical and spatial analysis of urban growth, the relationship between urban growth and vulnerability to climate change, and climate change adaptation measures in the parish of Calderón. The thirteen indicators analyzed show a medium-low risk level in their exposure and sensitivity components. However, the opposite is true for the adaptive capacity component, where vulnerability is high. The relationship between the parish’s urban growth and vulnerability to climate change is not direct. On the one hand, the expansion processes affect the territory and the population, causing environmental and social conflicts. On the other hand, factors immersed in urban expansion's spatial dynamics are revealed.