Urban explosion and hotspots of forest loss in western Himalaya: Mapping land use/cover change trends since 1975

Abstract

The Western Himalayan Region (WHR) is under constant threat from Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) brought on by various socioeconomic activities such as urbanization, agricultural expansion, and population growth. Detailed research into the scope of these changes is necessary to comprehend the challenges they represent. This study aimed at (1) examining and quantifying spatiotemporal patterns of LULCC from 1975 to 2015, (2) mapping the hotspots of forest loss, and (3) modelling future LULCC for the year 2055 using medium spatial resolution multispectral satellite imagery (MSS, TM, LISS-I, LISS-III, AWiFS), field data, visual interpretation and logistic regression model in the WHR. Logistic regression integrated various drivers of LULCC, including climatic, topographic, and socio-economic factors and past LULCC trends to forecast potential LULC in the WHR by 2055. The results highlight an outrageous 184% increase in regional urbanization. Expansion of urban and cropland (12%) led to deforestation which reduced the area of natural habitats, specifically forests (−11%), water bodies (−8%) and scrubland (−6%). A significant rise in barren land by 30% was noted, while there was a decrease of 20% in glacier/snow melt. The future projection for 2055 anticipates continuing current trends, emphasizing an intensified urban expansion of 63% and an approximate 9% reduction in overall forest coverage. The accuracy of the predicted 2015 LULC map was assessed using ROC/AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic/Area under Curve) which was found to be 0.79.