Change analyses and prediction of land use and land cover changes in Bernam River Basin, Malaysia

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) change is a dynamic process which is significantly influenced by anthropogenic activities. Analysing historical LULC trends and predicting future dynamics is critical to provide insights for decision-makers and planners aiming for sustainable land management and development. This study focuses on the Bernam River Basin (BRB). It employs an integrated approach that combines the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov algorithm, remote sensing, and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Using multi-temporal 10m resolution Sentinel-2 Landsat imagery from 2010, 2020, and 2022, the study classified LULC into seven categories: water, forest, wetlands, agriculture, urban, barren, and rangeland areas. Change analysis from 2010 to 2020 was conducted, with 2022 validating predicted LULC transitions. The MLP model, trained on land change driver variables, facilitated the generation of transition potentials for simulating future LULC changes. A spatially explicit CA-Markov model implemented LULC change projections for 2022, 2025, 2050, and 2075, based on the transition potentials. The analysis reveals an annual increase of 0.24% in water, 0.61% in forest, and 2.11% in urban areas, while wetlands (2.69%), agriculture (2.47%), barren (3.51%), and rangeland (4.58%) experienced declines. The CA-Markov approach accurately predicted LULC transitions for 2022, validated through an error matrix with an overall accuracy of 91.56% based on 450 sampling points. Predictions for 2025–2075 indicate rising trends in water (1.76%), wetlands (29.18%), agriculture (60.08%), urban (96.53%), barren (0.59%), and rangeland areas (3.57%). Forests are expected to decrease by 12% (261.52 km2). The study identified agriculture and urban expansion as the primary drivers of LULC changes in the river basin. These findings provide critical information for regional authorities to formulate evidence-based policies and management strategies, ensuring the environmental sustainability of BRB. Furthermore, these predicted LULC patterns can be integrated into complementary models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, to assess the impacts of LULC changes on water resources.