Abstract
We determined the effects of past and future climate changes on the distribution of the Montivipera raddei species complex (MRC) that contains rare and endangered viper species limited to Iran, Turkey and Armenia. We also investigated the current distribution of MRC to locate unidentified isolated populations as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas for their conservation. Present distribution of MRC was modeled based on ecological variables and model performance was evaluated by field visits. Some individuals at the newly identified populations showed uncommon morphological characteristics. The distribution map of MRC derived through modeling was then compared with the distribution of protected areas in the region. We estimated the effectiveness of the current protected area network to be 10%, which would be sufficient for conserving this group of species, provided adequate management policies and practices are employed. We further modeled the distribution of MRC in the past (21,000 years ago) and under two scenarios in the future (to 2070). These models indicated that climatic changes probably have been responsible for an upward shift in suitable habitats of MRC since the Last Glacial Maximum, leading to isolation of allopatric populations. Distribution will probably become much more restricted in the future as a result of the current rate of global warming. We conclude that climate change most likely played a major role in determining the distribution pattern of MRC, restricting allopatric populations to mountaintops due to habitat alterations. This long-term isolation has facilitated unique local adaptations among MRC populations, which requires further investigation. The suitable habitat patches identified through modeling constitute optimized solutions for inclusion in the network of protected areas in the region.
Highlights
Global climate change is responsible for large-scale alterations in geographic distributions of animal and plant species worldwide [1,2]
By comparing the mean annual temperature of accessible habitats we found that under climate change scenarios, background space for Montivipera raddei species complex (MRC) will shift from cool climate conditions to warmer conditions from the past to the future (Fig 3B) in concordance with the expected influence of global warming
Allopatric populations of the MRC are mostly located within a matrix of presumably unsuitable habitat, indicating characteristics of relict and highly threatened populations [51]
Summary
Global climate change is responsible for large-scale alterations in geographic distributions of animal and plant species worldwide [1,2]. We hypothesized that the current patchy distribution of the MRC is a response to this climatic change which has limited these mountaindwelling species to high elevations Due to their dependence on cool climate [30], we further hypothesized that with the current rate of global climate warming, populations of this species complex will lose much of their currently suitable habitat and will be forced to move to even higher elevations to survive. To test these hypotheses, we used niche-based models and GIS to investigate the historical biogeography of MRC, as well as its future distribution in the face of two climate change scenarios. We modeled the present distribution of MRC to identify unknown localities and assess the effectiveness of the protected area network in the region for conserving this species complex
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