Updating scenarios: A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios

Abstract

A dynamic and fast-changing environment brings challenges for generating long-term scenarios. Although the need to update scenarios for decision-making is recognized, a structured way for executing this process remains unclear. To configure a solution, we propose two concepts that need to be introduced: 1) that scenarios consist of a multi-layered structure, and 2) that changes should be classified according to their impact and uncertainty. Based on this classification, changes are incorporated into the different distinguished layers. To apply these concepts during an update, the paper presents a framework to structurally incorporate new information and uncertainties into scenarios, keeping them up-to-date while guaranteeing that the scenarios remain realistic and useful. The framework is applied to a test case consisting of three scenarios describing the European power market to illustrate how the framework performs in a practical context. Electric Vehicles are chosen as an uncertainty to illustrate how to structurally incorporate changes. Results show that using the framework allows the complexity of the update to be simplified into a step-by-step process. Additionally, it increases transparency by creating a common language for understanding if and how the changing external environment should be incorporated within scenarios.