Abstract
The short-tailed chinchilla (Chinchilla chinchilla) is a species classified as endangered throughout its distribution and for which neither a conservation nor management plan exists. Ecological niche models (ENMs) allow detection of potential areas of occurrence for species that are rare and/or of conservation interest. Here, we built and evaluated a suite of ENMs that incorporated new records for the species in Bolivia and removed those whose veracity could not be confirmed to provide an updated estimate of the extent of suitable habitat for C. chinchilla. Following model selection based on partial ROC, omission rate, and AICc, we then projected our top models across the historical distribution of C. chinchilla to identify locations of potentially suitable habitat. An ensemble of top models highlighted suitable habitat in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru, with values of probability of suitable habitat up to 0.72. Together, these results demonstrate that suitable habitat still exists across the historical range of this species, provide insight into the climatic niche of this species, and highlight areas across the four countries for which future surveys of wild populations may be worthwhile.
Highlights
Natural ecosystems are experiencing human-induced changes of significant magnitude over an unprecedently short timescale (Pimm et al, 2014; Diaz et al, 2019)
At least one wild population is known to be present in the southern portion of the country and a critical review of historical and museum records of Bolivian origin demonstrated that the veracity of a locality used by Copa Alvaro et al (2014) could not be confirmed (Delgado et al, 2018b). In light of these changes in knowledge of the distribution of the short-tailed chinchilla in Bolivia, and in order to provide an updated map of habitat suitability for the species in Bolivia and neighboring countries, we developed a new model that includes the new records, removes those of dubious origin, and was constructed attending to best-practice standards and ecological principles that are known to affect the performance of these types of models (Barve et al, 2011; Boria et al, 2014; Cobos et al, 2019; Araújo et al, 2019)
Bolivian occurrences were obtained from the map published by Copa Alvaro et al (2014), as well as the record published by Delgado et al (2018a), and from a skull found by Nuria Bernal in or near the Eduardo Avaroa Reserve
Summary
Natural ecosystems are experiencing human-induced changes of significant magnitude over an unprecedently short timescale (Pimm et al, 2014; Diaz et al, 2019). These effects are being felt across the globe and are thought to be responsible for major changes to human welfare, ecosystem services, and wildlife populations (Hooper et al, 2012; Faurby & Svenning, 2015; Rapacciuolo et al, 2017). The short-tailed chinchilla was classified as Endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) (Roach & Kennerley, 2016), in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES), and as threatened or critically endangered in Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina (Valladares et al, 2014a, 2018). The species was known from the coast and Andes of central Peru south through the highlands of west-central Bolivia (Anderson, S., 1997), northern Chile (Spotorno et al, 2004), and adjacent northwestern Argentina (Osgood, 1943; Barquez et al, 2006)
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