Update on the analysis of the need for pediatric surgeons in the United States

Abstract

An updated version of the 1975 analysis of pediatric surgical manpower needs in the United States by regional questionnaire analysis indicates that pediatric surgeons and capable hospital facilities are unusually well-distributed and that the estimated need is close to the present number practicing. Pediatric surgery grew by a factor of over 30% relative to population over the last five years, but this growth rate would be excessive if it continued. The growth included not only graduates from approved training programs but also from nonapproved training programs and from immigration. Limitations should probably be placed on the latter two sources of entry into the practice system. A computer analysis was made to project numbers of pediatric surgeons per unit population until the year 2010 with differing levels of trainee output. The study indicates that 15-17 individuals entering the system from all sources are sufficient to allow for modest continued growth of the specialty if current population trends continue.