Unveiling the influence of COVID-19 on the online retail market: A comprehensive exploration

Abstract

The global economy has experienced significant disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, profoundly impacting production and consumption patterns. This paper examines the effect of the pandemic on consumer goods prices, focusing on a sample of hand sanitizers, soap, disinfectants, and baking yeasts. The selection of these products was motivated by multiple and comprehensive criteria, where we considered various factors such as changes in consumption patterns during the pandemic, the relevance of these products in household consumption, consumer behavior, availability of historical price data, their significance in daily domestic life, and their utility in the prevention of the disease. Employing a time-series analysis, the study investigates the relationship between product prices and the S&P 500 index, as well as the presence of structural breaks in the time series. The results reveal a significant correlation between all prices in the sample and the S&P 500 index, indicating the index's efficacy as an indicator of the overall economic state. Moreover, the study identifies a single structural break in each price time series, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, hand sanitizers, soap, and disinfectants exhibit particularly substantial price jumps near the time of the break. These findings offer crucial insights into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer prices, which can guide policy decisions aimed at mitigating the pandemic's economic consequences.