Abstract
Insufficient observed hydro-climatological data and studies on land use and land cover change (LULCC) hinder the understanding of environmental changes at the Major River Basins in Madagascar (MRBM). This paper assesses the impact of LULCC on water resources across the MRBM. The ability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate streamflow is evaluated to obtain long-term and consistent hydrological information across the country. Moreover, this study emphasized the process of single-gauge calibration and dealing with uncertainty on a large river basin scale. Despite the lack of data, the model efficiently simulated streamflow, achieving high predictive accuracy in 8 basins out of 12 during calibration and validation. By 2050, a major change in LULC is predicted across the MRBM, which is expected to significantly alter the water balance. Major causes of LUCC and measures to address these changes are also investigated. We recommend basin-specific water management plans.
Published Version
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