Unrest in Iran: A Leadership Crisis

Abstract

Iranians have participated in many protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Revolutionary forces usually respond to riots with arbitrary mass arrests and mass shootings. Alone during the recent uprising in Nov 2019, more than 1,500 unarmed protestors were killed and 7,000 arrested by the regime. The author commenced empirical research into the drivers of the recent events with over 20,000 people living in Iran. The results show that about two million Iranians proactively support the Islamic Republic now. The majority, regular citizens, with less financial dependency on the regime or moderate religious background, are highly dissatisfied with the cleric rulers. This high level of disapproval leads to five substantial leadership crises challenging Iran's political elite. Besides, data suggest that widespread dissatisfaction and unpopularity seem to have been the leading cause of the most recent unrest in November 2019. Although the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, claimed that the uprising was disturbed and halted, however, one can expect further consequences of the outcry for the regime. According to the findings of this study, an overwhelming majority of Iranians should have boycotted the parliamentary elections in February 2020 - Iranians generally say no to the Islamic Republic.