The impact of the Iranian presidents on Tehran’s nuclear policy

Abstract

The article discusses the relevant issue of the presidential elections in Iran and the possible impact of the new Iranian president on Iran’s nuclear policy. The nuclear policy of the previous Iranian presidents was also analysed to define the level of autonomy of the president from the Iranian Supreme Leader. The article considers the research tasks related to analysis of the relations between the Iranian presidents and supreme leaders, comparing the nuclear policy of the different Iranian presidents and assessing the possible outcome of the 2021 presidential elections for the future development of the Iranian nuclear policy. It is mentioned that the objective of the article is to define the role of the Iranian presidents in development of the Iranian nuclear program and negotiations about it with the international community. The research methods of content analysis, comparative analysis, and system analysis were used in the article. It is mentioned in the article that most Iranian presidents were side-lined from the ruling elite after the end of their presidential terms, and this is one of the cases that demonstrates the limited character of the presidential power in Iran. The article reminds that only President Ali Khamenei managed to successfully continue his political career after his presidency because he became the Supreme Leader after the death of Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini in 1989. The article concludes that the first three Iranian presidents (A. Bani Sadr, M. Ali Rajai, and A. Khamenei) had very limited power, and the next four presidents (A. Hashemi Rafsanjani, M. Khatami, M. Ahmadinejad, and H. Rouhani) had bigger impact on Iran’s nuclear policy although theirpower remained limited. The article supposes that the current Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had complicated relations with the Iranian presidents, and for this reason he might have decided to further limit the impact of the next Iranian president on Iran’s nuclear policy; and this could be a main reason why most prominent reformist and moderate candidates were not allowed to participate in 2021 presidential elections, which guarantees a victory of the hardliner who is loyal to the Supreme Leader. The article concludes that despite the internal and external political tensions around the Iranian 2021 presidential elections, the next Iranian president would not have a significant impact on Iran’s nuclear policy, which would continue to be defined by the Supreme Leader.