Unraveling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conundrum: Deciphering Russia’s Southern Caucasus Strategy

Abstract

Following the Nagorno-Karabakh War, a ceasefire agreement was signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the path towards a comprehensive peace accord still needs to be solved with some challenges. The unresolved status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the fate of its Armenian inhabitants remain critical points of contention. Additionally, the difficulties of Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan in executing provisions related to the proposed transportation corridors outlined in the Ceasefire Pact add another layer of discord. External actors further complicated this situation. Armenia’s domestic opposition and Iran’s strategic ambitions within the region played significant roles. Conversely, Russia has taken a central role in overseeing peace negotiations and advancing its interests in the Southern Caucasus. This article delves into the entrenched disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia and examines the potential trajectory of their relations. Moreover, it provides insights into Russia’s intricate agenda, which shapes the evolving dynamics of the Southern Caucasus region. In essence, this study analyzes the intricate web of challenges, interests, and influences that intersect in this geopolitical landscape, shedding light on the intricate interplay between internal and external factors.