Abstract

Most ecological communities are facing changing environments, particularly due to global climate change. When migration is impossible, adaptation to these altered environments is necessary to survive. Yet, we have little theoretical understanding how ecological communities respond both ecologically and evolutionarily to such environmental change. Here we introduce a simple eco-evolutionary model, the Community-Wide Rescue (CWR) model, in which a community faces environmental deterioration and each species within the community is forced to undergo adaptation or become extinct. We assume that all species in the community are equivalent except for their initial abundance. This individual based simulation model thus combines community ecology and evolutionary rescue theory. We show that under Community-Wide Rescue a rapid loss of rare species occurs. This loss occurs due to competition and a limited supply of beneficial mutations. The rapid loss of rare species provides a testable prediction regarding the impact of Community-Wide Rescue on species abundance distributions in ecological communities.

Highlights

  • Many ecosystems face abrupt human-induced environmental change and evolutionary adaptation might be the only way to avoid extinction when migration is difficult (Vitousek et al, 1997; IPCC, 2014)

  • Because the variable-birth neutral model (VBN) model has a variable carrying capacity tuned to create a decrease in total community size similar to the one observed in the Community-Wide Rescue (CWR) model, we can conclude that the rapid loss of rare species in the CWR model is not just due to ecological drift being accelerated by a decrease in total community size

  • We have shown that a single endpoint RAC does not allow one to determine whether that RAC had been created by a neutral process or a CWR process

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Summary

Introduction

Many ecosystems face abrupt human-induced environmental change and evolutionary adaptation might be the only way to avoid extinction when migration is difficult (Vitousek et al, 1997; IPCC, 2014). This calls for models that predict how an ecological community composed of many different species adapts to such a deteriorated environment (Hoffmann and Sgrò, 2011) Such models of community-wide adaptation are relevant from the perspective of global change, but they are important to understand the response of any community to environmental change, such as the microbiome of a medical patient undergoing a prolonged treatment with antibiotics. In this case, not just a single pathogenic bacterium faces a changed environment, but a complex community consisting of many thousands of species (Arumugam et al, 2011; Cho and Blaser, 2012), must adapt to avoid extinction. Whilst many models exist that study how a population of a single species, or a community composed of two Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution | www.frontiersin.org van Eldijk et al

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