Unevenly distributed CO2 and its impacts on terrestrial carbon uptake under the changing land uses

Abstract

Changes in land-use structure and pattern can affect both atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the terrestrial carbon budget. To explore the effects of non-uniformly distributed CO2 concentration on terrestrial carbon uptake under land-use changes, this study integrated global CO2 concentrations, Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and land-use data under historical period and SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 1850 to 2100. Land-use intensity (LUI) and the CO2 correlation to NPP were calculated using partial correlation analysis by controlling LUI. The results showed that NPP growth over the forest was the highest among the land-use types, reaching 0.54 g C·m2, 2.06 g C·m2 and 4.64 g C·m2, respectively, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Among all the scenarios, the average correlation levels of atmospheric CO2 and NPP considering the LUI effect and controlling LUI ranged respectively from 0.34 to 0.68 and from 0.32 to 0.61 at a 5 % level of significance. It suggested that sensible land use planning might enhance the CO2 fertilization effect and that rises in CO2 concentrations could stimulate terrestrial carbon absorption. The findings add to the body of knowledge about the effects of atmospheric CO2 on terrestrial carbon uptake and serve as a scientific guide for protecting terrestrial carbon stocks and managing land use.