Undiscovered bird extinctions obscure the true magnitude of human-driven extinction waves

Abstract

Birds are among the best-studied animal groups, but their prehistoric diversity is poorly known due to low fossilization potential. Hence, while many human-driven bird extinctions (i.e., extinctions caused directly by human activities such as hunting, as well as indirectly through human-associated impacts such as land use change, fire, and the introduction of invasive species) have been recorded, the true number is likely much larger. Here, by combining recorded extinctions with model estimates based on the completeness of the fossil record, we suggest that at least ~1300–1500 bird species (~12% of the total) have gone extinct since the Late Pleistocene, with 55% of these extinctions undiscovered (not yet discovered or left no trace). We estimate that the Pacific accounts for 61% of total bird extinctions. Bird extinction rate varied through time with an intense episode ~1300 CE, which likely represents the largest human-driven vertebrate extinction wave ever, and a rate 80 (60–95) times the background extinction rate. Thus, humans have already driven more than one in nine bird species to extinction, with likely severe, and potentially irreversible, ecological and evolutionary consequences.