Understanding the role of the spatial-temporal variability of catchment water storage capacity and its runoff response using deep learning networks

Abstract

The land surface of a watershed acts as a large reservoir, with its catchment water storage capacity (CWSC) influencing rainfall-runoff relationship. Estimating CWSC at global grid scale is challenging due to calibration complexity, limited spatial continuity, and data scarcity. To address this, a deep learning-based approach incorporates spatial reconstruction and temporal transfer for capturing spatio-temporal variations in watershed characteristics. The study focuses on the Global Runoff Data Centre dataset and presents a grid-based hydrological model. Findings demonstrate accurate identification of CWSC distribution, with the model achieving an R 2 of 0.92 and the runoff Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.71 during validation. According to the CMIP6 projections, the global CWSC is anticipated to undergo a significant increase at a rate of 1.7 mm per decade under the SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. Neglecting spatio-temporal CWSC variability globally overestimates climate change’s impact on runoff, potentially reducing the projected long-term increase by up to 41%.