Understanding the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development through food-energy-water nexus: A case study of mekong river delta

Abstract

Food, energy, and water (FEW) resources are critical concerns to achieve long-term sustainability. Climate change and socio-economic development both affect the FEW Nexus, but the combined impacts of these two factors on a Nexus system is not well understood. An integrated management model was applied to quantify the combined impacts on the FEW Nexus through rice yield, power generation, and water withdrawal. Five scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 were chosen as the inputs of the integrated model in the Mekong River Delta (MRD). Results showed that rice yields will be vulnerable to extreme climate events. The minimum autumn rice yield, 4.7 ton/ha in 2023 under the SSP1–2.6 scenario, will be as low as the yield of the 2016 drought year (4.6 ton/ha). Power generation will increase sharply due to socio-economic development. The power generation of SSP5–8.5 in 2050 will be about 10 times higher than that in 2010. The average total water withdrawal in 2050 was estimated to increase by 40% compared to that in the 2016 drought year and will be more than 3 times higher than the average withdrawal of 1995–2010. Nexus analysis found water is a central resource that connects food and energy sectors in MRD. Regional sustainability analysis showed that climate change and socio-economic development both have a significant impact through affecting the FEW Nexus. Specifically, the energy and water sectors will be more vulnerable to the combined impacts than the food sector due to the coal-fired power plants planned in the MRD.