Abstract
PurposeCovid-19 pandemic is a unique and extraordinary situation for the globe, which has potentially disrupted almost all aspects of life. In this global crisis, the tourism and hospitality sector has collapsed in almost all parts of the world, and the same is true for India. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the impact of Covid-19 on the Indian tourism industry.Design/methodology/approachThis study develops an appropriate model to forecast the expected loss of foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) in India for 10 months. Since the FTAs follow a seasonal trend, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) method has been employed to forecast the expected FTAs in India from March 2020 to December 2020. The results of the proposed model are then compared with the ones obtained by Holt-Winter's (H-W) model to check the robustness of the proposed model.FindingsThe SARIMA model seeks to manifest the monthly arrival of foreign tourists and also elaborates on the progressing expected loss of foreign tourists arrive for the next three quarters is approximately 2 million, 2.3 million and 3.2 million, respectively. Thus, in the next three quarters, there will be an enormous downfall of FTAs, and there is a need to adopt appropriate measures. The comparison demonstrates that SARIMA is a better model than H-W model.Originality/valueSeveral studies have been reported on pandemic-affected tourism sectors using different techniques. The earlier pandemic outbreak was controlled and region-specific, but the Covid-19 eruption is a global threat having potential ramifications and strong spreading power. This work is one of the first attempts to study and analyse the impact of Covid-19 on FTAs in India.
Highlights
People lived in a mobile world and assumed that they maintain the status quo in mobility until Covid-19 arrived (Baum and Hai, 2020)
The lockdown has shaken the economy by hitting different economic sectors, especially the tourism industry, which has collapsed over the days (Chinazzi et al, 2020; Murray, 2020)
The Indian tourism industry is likely to be affected in terms of foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and consequent revenue loss due to the ongoing Covid-19
Summary
People lived in a mobile world and assumed that they maintain the status quo in mobility until Covid-19 arrived (Baum and Hai, 2020). 1-15, Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 2055-5911 JOURNAL OF TOURISM FUTURES PAGE 1 transportations are at standstill; even business meetings and conferences are postponed, cancelled or done through online mode that brings about a huge reduction of activities in all dimensions of the hospitality industry (Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020). India suspended all tourist visas from 13 March 2020 until 15 April 2020 (The Hindu, 2020) This timeline is changed from time to time and imposed different restrictions with terms and conditions. The Indian tourism industry is likely to be affected in terms of FTAs and consequent revenue loss due to the ongoing Covid-19. These extreme circumstances have motivated us to conduct this study and attempt to answer the following research question: RQ1.
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