Abstract
In this study, it is demonstrated that hurricane wind intensity, forward speed, pressure, and track play an important role on the generation and propagation of coastal storm surges. Hurricane Irma, which heavily impacted the entire Florida peninsula in 2017, is used to study the storm surge sensitivity to varying storm characteristics. Results show that the west coast experiences a negative surge due to offshore wind of the approaching storm, but the positive surge returns after the hurricane eye passes over a location and wind became onshore. In the west coast peak, surges are intensified by an increase in onshore wind intensity and forward speed. In the Florida Keys, peak surges are intensified by an increase in wind intensity, a decrease in forward speed and a decrease in pressure. In southeast and east Florida, peak surges are intensified by decrease in pressure, although overall surges are less significant as the water can slide along the coastline. In the recessed coastline of Georgia-Carolinas, maximum surge is elevated by an increase in onshore wind intensity. Shifting the track westward increases peak surges on the west coast, while shifting the track eastward increases peak surge on the east coast. The results demonstrate a new understanding about the sensitivity of surge to varying parametric conditions and the importance of considering changes in the coastline orientation in storm surge predictions.
Highlights
Accepted: 1 September 2021A storm surge, an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide, depends on several factors including storm intensity, size, surface pressure, forward speed, track and angle of approach, landfall location and bathymetry [1]
The goal of the current study is to understand the impact of wind intensity, forward speed, pressure, and track on the generation and propagation of Hurricane Irma storm surges, focusing around the Florida peninsula, which has not been done in previous studies
The maximum water elevation increases with the wind intensity due to a stronger overland push in the southwest end of the Florida peninsula and in the recess of the Georgia–Carolinas coastline, as a comparative study of Figure 2b,d, and f shows
Summary
A storm surge, an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide, depends on several factors including storm intensity, size, surface pressure, forward speed, track and angle of approach, landfall location and bathymetry [1]. As a storm proceeds out of the tropics, both hurricane forward speed and the hurricane track angle relative to the coast strongly influence the propagation of the wind directions. Lessons from several different recent hurricanes indicate that surge-induced inundation in coastal zones cannot be solely estimated from the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale [4] that relies on the maximum storm wind speed as the only determining factor. Both research and operational forecasting have heavily relied on the Saffir–Simpson scale to determine peak surges.
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