Statistical significance of tropical cyclone forward speed on storm surge generation: retrospective analysis of best track and tidal data in Japan

Abstract

ABSTRACT In this study, 42 years of tidal records and landfall TC best tracks in Japan were used to demonstrate that TC pre-landfall forward speed is significantly correlated with maximum storm surge height. Coastal morphology was the determining factor for the correlation between storm surge and TC forward speed. Fast-moving TCs tended to amplify the storm surge along open coastlines (Pearson correlation coefficient, R = 0.62), but reduce it in semi-enclosed bays (R = −0.52). The negative correlation contrasts with the general perception that the coincidence of TC wind speed and forward speed vectors generates a larger storm surge. The influence of coastal morphology was most prominent for TCs with a central pressure lower than 956 hPa. Tropical cyclone (TC) operational forecasts are continuously improving; however, there is still scope to improve the precision of storm surge predictions. These findings could contribute to the improvement of storm surge forecasting and provide emergency management personnel with more precise early warnings of dangerous storm surges.