Abstract
Starting as early as the 6th century BCE in southern Gaul, viticulture extended after the Roman conquest as far as the south of England. This paper presents different types of multi-proxy spatial modeling incorporating climatic, environmental and geohistorical factors to analyze the causes of the expansion of vineyards outside the Mediterranean region in the 1st century CE. The effects of the Roman Climate Optimum on potential wine production were simulated through agrosystem modeling (Lund-Potsdam-Jena-managed-Land). We also produce a predictive model of areas potentially favorable to viticulture in the 1st c. CE, based on a series of geographical, archaeological and paleoclimatic criteria. The results highlight a strong impact of climate change on potential wine production as early as 1st c. BCE and favorable conditions for the development of viticulture as far as northern Gaul throughout the Roman period, especially on soils with southern exposures, along communication routes (main roads and rivers) and close to Roman urban centers. Necessary data to build the model are available at https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/j4gtjy9w87/3.
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