Abstract

Abstract There is a dearth of reliable cost data for urban sanitation. In the absence of high-quality global data, the full cost of sustainable implementation of urban sanitation remains uncertain. This paper proposes an approach for developing bespoke parametric cost estimation models for easy and reliable estimation of the costs of alternative sanitation technologies in a range of geographical contexts. A key requirement for the development of these models is the establishment of a large database of empirical information on the current costs of sanitation systems. Such a database does not currently exist. Two foundational tools are proposed. Firstly, a standard metric for reporting the costs of urban sanitation systems, total annualised cost per household. Secondly, a standardised approach to the collection of empirical cost data, the Novel Ball-Park Reporting Approach (NBPRA). Data from the NBPRA are presented for 87 individual sanitation components from 25 cities in 10 countries. Broad cost ranges for different archetypal systems have been estimated; these currently have high levels of uncertainty. Further work is proposed to collect additional data, build up the global database, and develop parametric cost estimation models with higher reliability.

Highlights

  • This paper reports early findings from the Cost and Climate for Urban Sanitation (CACTUS) project which aims to fill some of this gap

  • We introduce a proposed standard cost metric for urban sanitation, Total Annualised Cost per Household (TACH) and per Capita (TACC), and propose a strategy for developing a parametric method that would enable the estimation of total annualised cost per household (TACH)/total annualised cost per capita (TACC) for new sanitation systems around the world

  • We propose two cost indicators to express the cost of any sanitation system: TACH and total annualised cost per capita (TACC)

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

These include optimism bias (Flyvbjerg ), strategic misinterpretation (Flyvbjerg ), corruption (Locatelli et al ), selection biases and winner course phenomenon (Eliasson & Fosgerau ), and distortions in tendering (Love et al , ) For this reason, some scholars suggest using ball-park estimation for large and complex infrastructure projects, even when detailed analytic data are available (Flyvbjerg ; Merrow ). The total lifecycle cost is effectively meaningless at the local government level, where budgets are managed on an annual basis For this reason, it makes the most sense to convert this to an annual liability, covering debt service for capital investment plus the annual operational costs and periodic maintenance requirements. For many decision-makers using the household as a denominator makes the most sense

A PROPOSED APPROACH TO COST ESTIMATION
RESULTS
CONCLUSION
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