Research, development and production costs prediction parametric model for future civil hypersonic aircraft

Abstract

Assessing the economic viability of new high-speed systems concepts since the early design phases is crucial for the success of future hypersonic vehicles including cruisers, reusable access-to-space and re-entry systems. Besides literature reports few parametric cost models for high-speed vehicles, all of them makes exclusively use of mass as parameter and none of the models moves beyond the vehicle level. This paper describes a new parametric cost estimation model which moves beyond the state-of-the-art methodologies (1) by integrating vehicle design and operational parameters (in addition to the mass) as cost drivers for the prediction of the vehicle life-cycle cost, (2) by introducing prediction margins accounting for the uncertainties on the data-driven correlations, (3) by providing a first estimate of the costs of every on-board subsystem, including combined cycle engines and multi-functional subsystems, (4) by increasing the granularity of the analysis up to technology level, thus providing a valuable support to Technology Roadmaping activities. The parametric cost estimation model has been refined and exploited in the context of the Horizon 2020 STRATOFLY project, where the technological, operational, environmental, and economic viability of a Mach 8 waverider concept have been investigated.