Understanding spatial evolution of global climate change risk: Insights from convergence analysis

Abstract

In effective policy formulation, an understanding of the spatial evolution of global climate change loss risk and its determinants is necessary. Thus, this paper attempts to detect the club convergence characteristics of global climate change loss risk and the social and economic determinants leading to club convergence. The Global Climate Risk Indices published by Germanwatch is adopted as the main indicator for club convergence, which captures the extent of losses from climate change events. The empirical study indicates there are four convergent clubs among 167 countries, and they are significant differences in climate change loss risk and space distribution. Urbanization rate, population density, and national education level are the three top important social and economic drivers for forming the convergence clubs. Additionally, this research conducts further exploration of the climate change economic and demographic loss risks, demonstrating the heterogeneities among different risks.