Understanding service uncertainties in industrial product–service system cost estimation

Abstract

The global transition towards service orientation is posing challenges in cost estimation for manufacturers driven by the uncertainties that arise at the bidding stage of long-lasting performance-based contracts (i.e. availability). Service uncertainty is driven by the quality of information flow and knowledge across a given service network; however, it commonly suffers from the unavailability of useful data to assist cost predictions. Currently, consideration of cost uncertainty for an industrial product–service system is lacking in literature. To fill this gap, this paper combines literature in service and uncertainty in cost estimation to propose the components of a service delivery system, classification of sources of uncertainty based on supply and demand and the suitable uncertainty modelling methods for service cost estimation. The paper categorises service uncertainties in a demand and supply approach, whilst also allocating the types of uncertainty into aleatory and epistemic to propose suitable uncertainty modelling approaches. For future research, various areas such as consideration of a holistic approach to account for service uncertainties and development of a framework to support inter-linkages across a service network are proposed.